Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.514766 0.597656 0.686912 0.789849 0.904954 1.029367 1.173668
2025-03-30 0.372247 0.475577 0.595283 0.743021 0.919188 1.121231 1.369094
2025-04-06 0.279786 0.392915 0.533609 0.718681 0.952697 1.235590 1.599924
2025-04-13 0.207470 0.321717 0.474544 0.688761 0.975457 1.339693 1.830317
2025-04-20 0.162520 0.278061 0.443972 0.690894 1.039054 1.501534 2.149547
2025-04-27 0.124253 0.235978 0.408673 0.681709 1.086933 1.648772 2.465843
2025-05-04 0.097643 0.205960 0.385967 0.687475 1.156825 1.833489 2.850909
2025-05-11 0.075876 0.178636 0.362545 0.688778 1.220678 2.016543 3.251131
2025-05-18 0.054339 0.145301 0.322312 0.656670 1.229457 2.120506 3.547962
2025-05-25 0.037396 0.115233 0.281057 0.615568 1.218244 2.192942 3.804596
2025-06-01 0.027627 0.097480 0.259314 0.605599 1.257608 2.347850 4.199439
2025-06-08 0.020051 0.081821 0.237972 0.592562 1.289847 2.494056 4.592159
2025-06-15 0.015731 0.073658 0.232267 0.611985 1.387432 2.764160 5.215284
2025-06-22 0.010518 0.059309 0.207544 0.586897 1.398555 2.888717 5.611484
2025-06-29 0.007291 0.049531 0.191338 0.577401 1.439023 3.068872 6.115547
2025-07-06 0.004819 0.040454 0.173749 0.560945 1.463248 3.222166 6.585597
2025-07-13 0.003510 0.035573 0.167060 0.569959 1.542140 3.483121 7.261555
2025-07-20 0.002400 0.030291 0.156956 0.568059 1.597216 3.703779 7.880831
2025-07-27 0.001715 0.026757 0.151598 0.578040 1.680415 3.985776 8.629523
2025-08-03 0.001181 0.023314 0.145062 0.583353 1.753619 4.253844 9.369061
2025-08-10 0.000665 0.018402 0.129709 0.558654 1.752063 4.371055 9.833899
2025-08-17 0.000329 0.013922 0.113120 0.525266 1.723958 4.430569 10.192140
2025-08-24 0.000186 0.011542 0.105294 0.518663 1.762858 4.633906 10.840095